Who buys next?

by Atilla Yucel, CDR Financing Lead, Negative Emissions Platform

Early corporate adopters have built the foundation of the CDR market. But voluntary demand is plateauing and the scale required for industrial resilience demands more. The Negative Emissions Platform examines why governments must now step in, and how the right policy tools can unlock the next phase of carbon removal.

Early adopters have been instrumental in kickstarting the market for high-integrity carbon dioxide removal (CDR). A small group of frontrunner companies, accounting for most contracted volumes globally, has set quality benchmarks, enabled early project financing, and paved the way for broader market participation. 

Early movers recognise that residual emissions will remain unavoidable and that high-quality permanent removals are not merely an expense but a strategic hedge against future carbon costs, regulatory exposure, and supply constraints. Long-term offtake agreements have enabled early investment decisions across a portfolio of technologies that will be needed at scale in the 2030s. 

As the number of new buyers is plateauing, however, it is becoming clearer that voluntary corporate demand alone cannot at this time build a market of the scale required for industrial resilience in a low-carbon economy.  

Durable CDR essentially provides a public good. It addresses a waste management issue and creates value through innovation and employment. Estimates suggest that the European CDR value chain could create around 180,000 high-skilled jobs by 2035 across capture technologies, transport and storage infrastructure, feedstock supply chains, and advanced monitoring services. 

The sector continues to face a persistent green premium, with the price of durable removal credits ranging between EUR 150-800. Without targeted policy support to accelerate cost reductions, project pipelines risk slowing at precisely the moment when investment decisions must be taken.  

If we do not advance on learning curves, we will keep pushing current cost levels forward. Delays today risk locking in higher costs tomorrow for industries and society. 

Governments therefore must step in and step up. They have a critical role to play in bridging the gap between early voluntary demand and compliance demand.  

Europe has both an opportunity and a responsibility to act now. An EU Buyers’ Club combined with a sufficiently resourced purchasing support facility can broaden participation beyond a small group of large corporates and enable bankable offtakes across a diverse portfolio of CDR methods.  

National governments also have a critical role to play. Supply-push such as R&D funding must be complemented by demand-pull that creates lead markets for permanent removals. Every country has the potential to benefit from carbon removal value chains, whether through cleantech manufacturing, feedstock supply, capture facilities, storage, or monitoring technologies. 

Member State participation in EU-level purchasing rounds can reduce transaction costs, improve price discovery, and allow national funding to contribute to a strong demand signal. Public demand must now strengthen market confidence and mobilize investments to help deliver the EU’s ambition of at least 5 million tonnes of permanent removals by 2030. 

Project developers must take final investment decisions now to be able to deliver removal capacity for the 2030s. Revenue certainty through offtakes, price guarantees, or public procurement can unlock financing for carbon removal projects and associated CO₂ transport and storage infrastructure. For instance, the Northern Lights project reached final investment decision precisely because of the additional revenues that carbon removals provide in excess of point-source capture of fossil emissions. 

The opportunity is tangible. Demand-pull by governments can bring into the market the pool of companies with net-zero commitments, including thousands of firms aligned with SBTi pathways in Europe and globally.  

Early voluntary buyers have helped establish the foundation of this market. The next phase requires public policy to provide the demand signals and confidence necessary for carbon removal to scale and fulfil its role in achieving industrial and climate goals.